Middle East war plunges Pakistan into strategic dilemma

Last September, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman signed the Pakistan-Saudi Defense Cooperation Agreement. Yet, less than six months later, Pakistan finds itself in an unprecedented predicament as a result of this agreement.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif embrace each other on the day they sign a defence agreement, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, September 17, 2025.

Since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, Iran has designated US military bases and assets in the Gulf, including the Prince Sultan Air Base and the Jenkins Military Base in Saudi Arabia, as legitimate targets for retaliation.

After the US and Israel struck Iran's oil and natural gas assets, Iran announced that it would target oil and gas fields in Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, and issued a statement in advance.

So far, Pakistan has maintained a delicate balance in this ongoing conflict: On one hand, the country condemned missile strikes on Gulf nations, while on the other, it blamed the US-Israeli aggression against Iran.

However, should Saudi Arabia and Iran come into direct confrontation, with Saudi Arabia launching retaliatory strikes on Iranian targets, this tightrope balance would become unsustainable.

Pakistan has troops stationed in Saudi Arabia, tasked with assisting in the kingdom's defense. Should Saudi Arabia or other Gulf Cooperation Council member states go to war with Iran, Pakistan would have no choice but to join the fight.

But it’s not easy to fight. Pakistan shares a 900-kilometer-long border with Iran. Any conflict with Iran could have enormous political, economic, and security repercussions for Pakistan, plunging it into an abyss of instability.

What makes Pakistan even more uneasy is that if it launches military strikes against Iran, it would play right into Israel's hands. Israel aims to draw regional countries into a full-scale regional war. In that scenario, India would be poised to strike at Pakistan's vulnerabilities, inflicting unbearable damage.

If Pakistan did not to fight with against Iran, the Pakistan-Saudi Defense Cooperation Agreement would become "a mere scrap of paper." Pakistan would become a laughingstock for India and others, losing all credibility.

As the Middle East situation continues to deteriorate and more countries become entangled, Pakistan’s diplomatic balancing may not prevent it from being drawn into this escalating conflict.