US-Israel killing of Khamenei makes the world more unpredictable

The United States and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran on February 28, killing the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others.

A man holds a poster of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes, as he joins other mourners at a square in Tehran on Mar 1.

The Supreme Leader holds the ultimate authority in Iran's political system, and his death is an unprecedented blow to the country. Khamenei has led Iran for decades, so his sudden demise will create a significant power vacuum.

The precision strike on such a high-level, highly confidential meeting site inevitably has fueled speculations that Iran’s security apparatus and inner circles have been severely infiltrated.

Although the Iranian constitution provides for an interim council composed of the president and the head of the judiciary to assume authority, the long-established balance of power has been disrupted. The struggle between different factions—hardliners and moderates—may intensify, potentially leading to internal divisions.

 

Iranians gather to mourn the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes, in Tehran on on Mar 1.

Khamenei was the chief architect of Iran’s "Axis of Resistance" strategy, supporting regional forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Syrian government, and the Houthis in Yemen. His death could weaken or shift these policies, diminishing Iran's regional influence.

This incident is another major blow to an already turbulent world order. Against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the new chaos in the Middle East—a long-standing powder keg—will bring more uncertainties in global energy supply and weaken the international efforts in resolving existing crises.

In the long run, the United States and Israel have set an extremely dangerous precedent by treating the overthrow of a sovereign government through force and the "decapitation" of its leader as a policy option. This severely undermines the fundamental norms of international relations based on the UN Charter, making the world even more unpredictable and unstable.